Membobi Masu Rage Bakwai na Nazarin Siyasa

A cikin zaɓen siyasa, yaushe ne “mataccen zafi” ba mataccen zafi ba ne? Yaushe ƙananan kashi a cikin zaɓen ke nufin babban bambanci a sakamakon ƙarshe? Waɗanne kurakurai ne journalistsan jarida ke yi akai -akai a lokacin da suke ƙoƙarin bayyana ra'ayoyin jama'a?

Yawancin masu sharhin siyasa ba a horar da su a cikin ilimin halin ɗabi'a ko ƙididdiga ba, don haka suna da haɗarin ci gaba da yin fassarar sakamakon zaɓen da halayyar jefa ƙuri'a. A cikin kwanaki 80 masu zuwa, ga abin da ya kamata mu kula da shi.

1) Kuskuren da ya fi yawa kuma abin takaici na masu sharhin siyasa shine sanya alamar kowane zaɓe a matsayin “zafi mai zafi” idan banbanci tsakanin candidatesan takara yana cikin gefen kuskure (MoE).

A zahiri, ana ba da shawarar mutuƙar zafin ne kawai lokacin da aka ɗaure 'yan takarar. Idan ɗan takarar H yana gaban ɗan takarar T da kashi 52% zuwa 48% a cikin ƙuri'a tare da MoE na 4%, wannan yana nufin mafi kyawun ƙimar zaɓin shine ɗan takarar H yana jagorantar da maki 4. Wannan a bayyane yake. Kuma ba mataccen zafi ba ne. Lallai, yana da yuwuwar ɗan takarar H ya jagoranci ɗan takarar T da maki 8 kamar yadda aka ɗaure 'yan takarar.

Ya kamata a lura da kuskuren auna amma ba a yi masa mummunar fassara ba.

2) Sau da yawa ana watsi da ƙananan bambance -bambance a cikin zaɓen.

Ƙananan bambanci da daidaituwa a cikin zaɓen na iya haifar da manyan bambance -bambance a rumfar zaɓe. Idan ɗan takarar H ya jagoranci ɗan takarar T da maki 3 cikin tsawon watanni biyu, wannan kashi 3 yana da ma'ana. A cikin zaben shugaban kasa mai fuska biyu, wannan kashi zai kai ga gamsasshen nasara ga dan takara H. Extrapolating daga masu kada kuri'a a zaben shugaban kasa na 2012, kashi 3% na jagoranci zai fassara zuwa bambancin kuri'u miliyan 4.

3) Sau da yawa ana gabatar da rabe -raben azaman rarrabuwa kuma cikakke - lokacin da a zahiri suna da iyaka da dangi.

Misali mafi ban mamaki na wannan kuskuren shine hoton “jahohin ja” da “jahohin shuɗi”. Ko da yake a bayyane yake, wannan kuskure yana ba da tabbaci. Idan kashi 54% na masu jefa ƙuri'a a cikin wata jiha sun zaɓi ɗan Republican, to wannan yana nufin 46% ba su yi ba. Hakanan za'a iya faɗi game da bayanan alƙaluma. Idan ɗan takarar T yana jagorantar masu jefa ƙuri'a ba tare da ilimin kwaleji ba, wannan ba yana nufin duk irin waɗannan mutane suna goyan bayan ɗan takara T. Gabaɗaya, ɗan adam yana da halin yin tunani iri ɗaya, wanda kawai ke jaddada buƙatar kulawa daga hasashe mafi rinjaye a matsayin duka ƙungiyar .

4) Lokacin da aka gabatar da shi ba tare da mahallin ba, ƙididdiga suna ɓatarwa.

A cikin sabon zaɓen shugaban ƙasa, alal misali, cewa kowane ɗan takarar da ya yi nasara ya sami tallafi daga ƙasa da kashi 7% na masu zaɓe daidai ne, amma ba a cikin mahallin ba. A cikin filayen da aka yi takara, dan takarar da ya yi nasara yawanci yana karɓar ƙasa da 7% na jimlar masu zaɓe. Irin wannan sakamakon na al'ada ne - ba mai firgitarwa ba ko ma labari. Jimlar yawan fitowar jama'a a cikin zaɓen fidda gwani da na babban taron jam'iyya yawanci kasa da kashi 13% na masu zaɓe. Yin shiru yana nuna yanayin kwatankwacin fitowar mutane 100% ba gaskiya bane. Ko da a babban zaɓen shugaban ƙasa, fitowar jama'a a cikin rabin karni da suka gabata ya dogara da kashi 60%. Shekaru ashirin da suka gabata, yana ƙasa da 50%. A cikin 2012, an zaɓi Shugaba Obama cikin gamsuwa tare da ƙuri'u daga kashi 27% na masu zaɓe.

5) Matsayi na musamman na tarawa na iya haifar da rashin fahimta.

Jihohi suna da mahimmanci a zaɓe saboda sune tushen Kwalejin Zaɓe, amma galibi ba ƙungiyoyin da suka dace bane don fahimtar siyasar Amurka. Bugu da ƙari, ba mu da jajayen jahohi da jahohin shuɗi. Kowace jiha tana da haɗin gwiwar 'yan Democrat,' yan Republican, da 'Yanci, tare da yawancin' yan Democrat a cikin birane, galibin 'yan Republican a yankunan karkara, da cakuda a kewayen birni. Dangane da fahimtar ƙungiyoyin zaɓe daban -daban, rukunin birane, ƙauyuka, da kewayen birni sun fi bayani fiye da iyakokin jihohi.

6) Yin watsi da bayanai na iya haifar da maganganun daidaiton ƙarya.

Misali, masu sharhi kan siyasa suna son yin magana game da fa'ida da rashin dacewar ɗan takara, tare da rage ƙima mara ƙima daga abin da ya dace, wanda hakan ke ba da ƙimar rashin daidaituwa. Idan ɗan takarar H yana da ƙimar mara kyau na -11, wannan ba shi da kyau. Amma idan ɗan takarar T yana da ƙimar mara kyau na -28, to hakan ya fi muni. Don yin watsi da banbancin ta hanyar cewa duka 'yan takarar biyu suna da ƙima mara kyau shine ɓatarwa ta hanyar jefar da bayanai.

7) Taswirori suna wakiltar yawan ƙasa ba mutane ba.

Kodayake yawancin masu sharhi suna sane da wannan a cikin 2016, har yanzu yana da girma a gani don wakiltar manyan jam’iyyun biyu a wannan ƙasa da launuka biyu daban -daban, ja da shuɗi. Duwatsu, filayen, da filayen masara da alkama ba sa jefa ƙuri'a. Nuna taswira tare da waɗannan launuka biyu da aka ɗora akan jihohi daban -daban na iya ɓatar da masu kallo game da mamayar wani bangare akan wata.

Waɗannan batutuwa ba na bangaranci ba ne. Kuskure ne na ƙididdiga da wakilcin bayanai waɗanda ainihin ƙididdigar ƙididdiga na iya gyarawa.