'Yan Democrat na iya ƙimanta ƙiyayya da Republican a Zabe

Shin masu jefa ƙuri'ar Republican suna da ƙima a cikin yanke shawara na zaɓe kamar yadda 'yan Democrat suke tsammani?

A cikin wata takarda kwanan nan, marubutan (Mercier, Celniker, & Shariff, 2020) sun ba da bayani game da bincike guda uku da ke nazarin ƙididdigar 'yan Democrat cewa' yan Republican za su yarda su zaɓi 'yan takara daga nau'ikan alƙaluma daban -daban. Nazarin ya bincika hasashe masu ban sha'awa da yawa game da imanin 'yan Democrat game da son zuciya na Republican da kuma yadda imani game da takamaiman abubuwan da ke da alaƙa da imanin' yan Democrat game da zaɓen ɗan takarar da suka fi so.

Wannan ba cikakken nazari ne na binciken su ba. Akwai takamaiman hasashe da yawa game da ƙididdigar Demokraɗiyya na 'yan takarar Demokraɗiyya daga fannoni daban -daban waɗanda ban tattauna a nan ba. Misali, marubutan sun gwada yadda ake zaɓe tsakanin 'yan Democrat na mutane daga takamaiman rukunin alƙaluma da hasashen' yan Democrat na Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, da Pete Buttigieg. A cikin wannan post, Na zayyana wasu abubuwan binciken da suka fi burge ni.

An buga takarda akan layi kafin haɗawa a cikin mujallar kuma har yanzu ba a sake yin nazari akan takwarorina ba. Kamar koyaushe, ina ƙarfafa masu karatu su karanta duk labarin asali da kansu kuma su samar da nasu ra'ayin game da bayanan - da bincika sakamakon da ban tattauna anan ba.

An tattara bayanai don Nazarin 1 daga samfurin kan layi na mahalarta 728 (76% Fari, 13% Baƙi, 7% Hispanic, 6% Gabashin Asiya; 56% namiji, 44% mace; matsakaicin shekaru 35.75). An tambayi mahalarta game da shirye-shiryensu na jefa ƙuri'a ga 'yan takarar siyasa na ƙungiyoyin alƙaluma daban-daban da ƙimarsu na yadda' yan Democrat, 'yan Republican, da duk Amurkawa za su amsa tambayoyi iri ɗaya (akan sikelin 0-100%). Akwai 'yan Democrat 369,' yan Republican 175, da 167 masu cin gashin kansu a cikin samfurin.

A matsayin tushen abin da za a iya kwatanta kimantawa daga mahalarta, masu binciken sun yi amfani da bayanai daga ƙuri'ar Gallup ta ƙasa wanda ya nuna kimar son yin zaɓe don wani yanki na alƙaluma. Bayanan Gallup na ƙasa sun nuna a baya cewa 'yan Republican sun ce sun fi son zaɓar ƙungiyoyi masu zuwa: Katolika (97%), Baƙi (94%), Bayahude (94%), Hispanic (92%), bishara (92%) , ko mace (90%).

A matsakaici, 'yan Democrat a cikin samfurin sunyi kuskuren fannoni da yawa. Wannan ya haɗa da matsakaicin ƙimar Demokraɗiyya cewa 'yan Republican za su nuna yarda su zaɓi ɗan takarar Katolika (70%), Baƙi (40%), Bayahude (45%), Hispanic (37%), evangelical (76%), ko a mace (43%).

Bayanai na Gallup na ƙasa sun nuna a baya cewa 'yan Republican ba su da niyyar jefa ƙuri'a ga ƙungiyoyi masu zuwa: ɗan gurguzu (19%), Musulmi (38%), ko rashin yarda (42%). 'Yan Democrat sun rasa alamar biyu daga cikin waɗannan ukun, idan aka yi la'akari da matsakaicin ƙimar Demokraɗiyya cewa' yan Republican za su nuna shirye -shiryen jefa ƙuri'a ga ɗan takarar Musulmi (21%) ko wanda bai yarda da Allah ba (29%).

Don haka, 'yan Democrat sun yi fatali da mummunan martanin da' yan Republican suka mayar kan rukunin Katolika, Baƙar fata, Yahudawa, Hispanics, Evangelicals, da mata, tare da ƙima na musamman da ba daidai ba na nuna wariyar Republican a kan 'yan Hispanik. Wannan mummunar fahimta ce ta 'yan Republican da aka ba cewa' yan takarar Hispanic Marco Rubio da Ted Cruz sun kasance manyan manyan masu fafatawa a zaben shugaban kasa na GOP na 2016.

'Yan Democrat sun kuma yi watsi da ƙin amincewa da ɗan takarar da yake Musulmi ko wanda bai yarda da Allah ba. Bugu da kari, 'yan Democrat sun yi hasashen adadin' yan Republican da za su yarda su zabi dan takarar da ya haura shekaru 70 ko dan gurguzu. Ganin cewa manyan masu fafatawa uku na takarar Democrat da Republican duk sun haura shekaru 70 (Biden, Sanders, Trump), a matsayin dan gurguzu, Sanders na iya samun mafi hasara dangane da zaɓen ƙasa. Ƙarin bayanai a cikin Nazari na 1 sun nuna cewa 'yan Republican sun fi dacewa wajen yin hasashen shirye -shiryen Democrat na zaɓen' yan takara fiye da hasashen Democrat na jam'iyyarsu. Wannan na iya kasancewa saboda 'yan Republican sun fi dacewa da rarrabuwar kawuna a yanzu a cikin Jam'iyyar Democrat fiye da yadda' yan Democrat ke yin ƙididdigar su.

An tattara bayanai don Nazarin 2 a cikin Janairu 2020 daga samfurin kan layi na mahalarta 597. Sai kawai ta binciki 'yan Democrat kuma ta ƙara tambayoyi game da yawan hulɗa da mai halarta da' yan Republican. A gare ni, abin da ya fi ban sha'awa a cikin Nazarin 2 shine cewa ƙarin hulɗa ta yau da kullun da mahalarta Democrat ke yi da 'yan Republican, daidai gwargwadon kimarsu na son' yan Republican su zaɓi ɗan takarar wani alƙaluma. Wannan sakamakon yana nuna cewa yana buƙatar buƙatar fita daga ɗakunan mu na echo da yin magana da juna.

An tattara bayanai don Nazarin 3 a cikin Fabrairu 2020 daga samfurin kan layi na mahalarta 930. Yayi daidai da Nazarin 2, sai dai yana da magudi na gwaji: Ko dai an ba mahalarta bayanan ƙima akan ainihin adadin Amurkawa da ke son zaɓar ɗan takara daga wata ƙungiyar alƙaluma ko ba a ba su irin wannan bayanin ba. Bayar da bayanan ƙimar tushe ya haifar da Demokraɗiyya kimanta mafi girman zaɓin ɗan takarar wanda bai yarda da Allah ba, Baƙar fata, mace, ɗan luwadi, ɗan Hispanic, Bayahude, ko Musulmi, da ƙarancin zaɓin ɗan takarar wanda Katolika ne, mai wa'azin bishara, Kirista, ɗan gurguzu, ko sama da shekaru 70.

Kammalawa

Marubutan binciken da aka yi nazari sun gudanar da bincike guda uku waɗanda ke nuna yadda 'yan Democrat ke hango' yan Republican kuma suna ba da haske kan yadda zaɓe, halaye ga ƙungiyoyi, da tsinkayen halayen wasu ga ƙungiyoyi na iya yin tasiri ga tallafin mutum ga wani ɗan takara. Ya dace masu dabarun siyasa su yi amfani da wannan kimiyyar tunani don tantance dabarun su. Mafi mahimmanci, yana ba masu bincike na asali a cikin ilimin kimiyyar tunani game da yadda halaye ke tasiri yanayin siyasar yanzu.